Even though the external pressure from the protests and the discontent from every corner of the country, including the Amhara protest, had been instrumental, it was very hard to think of any shift in power had it not been for the rise of some reformist elements from within the coalition who embraced the people's demand for change. Next month the constitutional term limit of this parliament and government will expire.
This is essentialist reading of a political culture as static throughout history. Even after the constitutional crisis event that signaled the regime's end of term, the PM and his party were stubborn enough to manipulate the legal system to extend their term in office despite the call from opposition parties to have an all inclusive dialogue, and establish a care-taker government. Responding to The Economist, he admits there may be “isolated incidents where law-enforcement agencies have used disproportionate force”. He is currently admitted into the Ph.D. program at the University of Florida to pursue his studies in Political Science. It is the only way to keep the country together. The combined effects of these resulted in an unprecedented support for him and the incumbent regime which was hoped to direct the country to a better sociopolitical path.
The failure for the current transition to democracy is mainly ascribed to this factor and PM Abiy, who inadvertently came to power as a result of the protests, has in time resorted to manipulate this state structure towards consolidating his grip and influence.
Rather that de-escalating and calming the situation, the ruling party chose to occupy itself with irrelevant undertakings and to overwhelm to people with PR avalanches, exacerbating the fragile situation.
The first months of Abiy's leadership witnessed important developments, including but not limited to, the lifting of the state of emergency, release of political prisoners, opening up the media, and legalizing outlawed political parties. We have observed this from the insignificant attention the ruling party gave for the opposition in spite of their insistence for dialogue and reconciliation. CCM presidential candidate Dr John Magufuli exchanges greetings with former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa (C) and former CCM Secretary General Abdulrahman Kinana shortly after addressing a campaign rally in Arusha city yesterday. Its engagement with the military structure, its privileged encroachment in the (then) booming economy, and its remarkable use of the security apparatus for political purposes could tell how daunting it was to see any peaceful transfer of power any time soon. It was amidst these consequential developments that COVID-19 was reported as global pandemic for which the government declared a state of emergency followed shortly by the electoral board's decision to postpone Ethiopia's much anticipated election. We reject the notion that we can’t practise our religion—Christian or Muslim,—and be an Ethiopian at the same time. The incumbent is simply capitalizing on this long established power structure.
However, many have already started to criticize his leadership in the early days due mainly to his lack of presenting a proper roadmap to guide the transition. Since taking office he has focused on amassing power by sidelining rivals, locking up opponents and monopolising decision-making instead of working with the opposition to lessen tension peacefully. It was this group that sparked a lot of hope to the different actors in all sides of the spectrum and restored faith in the political process that followed. For some who were able to make it, it justifiably took more than a year to make alliances and partnerships. The repaired cargo wagons have increased cargo carrying capacity from 186 963t to 425 787t in the 2019/20 financial year. To sum up, the interplay of these and other factors not discussed here has contributed to the failure of the expected peaceful democratic transition in Ethiopia. Moreover, if we could look back how regime changes happened in the past, they were the consequences of public revolt and grievances - a demand for freedom. This dominance of central power structure has been highly conspicuous in all the regimes through the Emperor, to Mengistu and Meles.
Without using this long established power structure, orchestrating constitutional interpretation to extend his term in office would have been much challenging too. This ensued the opposition camp that went disarray characterized by lack of one thing in common: formidable strength that could competitively challenge the incumbent.
They are harvesting the seeds of inter-ethnic and inter-religious division and hatred. However, it was only for about the first six months that the unanimous support PM Abiy enjoyed from all corners of the country could last. Recently Ethiopia has been in the news for the wrong reasons. Photo: Correspondent Miraji Msala, ippmedia.com © 1998-document.write(new Date().getFullYear()). (This proposition never refutes the emergence of one or two opposition parties which were heading in that direction). Lemma Megersa, who was considered the front runner of the reformist team, stood against the decision, creating the first signs of a consequential rift between him and Abiy. The security deterioration across the country was the first manifestation that caused many to question his ability to deliver the expected leadership the time has needed.
When individuals and groups of people are targeted in violent attacks by those bent on wreaking havoc in the country, the government has the inherent duty to take the necessary measures to bring both the perpetrators and the instigators to justice. That is why the use of similar hierarchical central power for authoritarian ambitions seems paradoxical under PM Abiy.
We can love what we are without hating who we are not.
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